The earnings calendar is relatively sparse this week. Homebuilder
reports on Monday, followed by
and Progressive release August sales data on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.
The main event on the economic calendar is the Federal Open Market Committee’s September meeting, which concludes on Wednesday. A change in interest rates is unlikely, but Chair Jerome Powell may have more to say about the central bank’s monetary policy framework and willingness to let inflation run above 2%.
Economic data out this week include August retail sales from the Census Bureau on Wednesday. Consumer spending is expected to have climbed 1.3% from July. On Friday, the University of Michigan releases its September Consumer Sentiment Index and the Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for August.
Lennar reports quarterly results.
hosts a two-day virtual investor day to discuss its pipeline of drugs.
Adobe and FedEx report earnings.
hosts a virtual investor day where senior management, including CEO Miguel Patricio, will discuss the company’s outlook.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September. Consensus estimate is for a 7.5 reading, up from August’s 3.7.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports export and import prices for August. Economists forecast a 0.4% month-over-month rise in export prices, compared with a 0.8% gain in July. Import prices are seen jumping 0.6%, a shade below July’s 0.7% spike. In recent months, the rise in import prices has been primarily driven by higher fuel prices.
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. The FOMC is expected to stand pat with interest rates near zero but might expound on its recently updated inflation framework.
The National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Housing Market Index for September. Expectations are for a 78 reading, even with the August figure. The August reading matched the December 1998 data as the highest in the 35-year history of the index. The housing market has made a remarkably quick and strong recovery from the pandemic lows. A byproduct of this has been soaring lumber prices.
The Census Bureau reports retail sales for August. Consumer spending is expected to rise by 1.3% month over month. Excluding autos, estimates call for a 1.5% gain. This compares with jumps of 1.2% and 1.9%, respectively, in July.
The Census Bureau reports residential construction data for August. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.44 million housing starts of privately owned homes, down from 1.5 million in July. Like much of the real estate market, housing starts have rebounded strongly from their pandemic low of 934,000 in April.
The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 12. Weekly jobless claims remain elevated historically, but have fallen from an average of 1.5 million in June to 992,250 in August.
The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for September. Economists forecast a 75.5 reading, slightly ahead of August’s 74.1.
The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for August. Expectations are for a 1.3% gain, roughly even with the previous month. The LEI has risen for three consecutive months, but the pace of change has slowed, suggesting that the postpandemic recovery is losing steam.
Write to Nicholas Jasinski at [email protected]